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Research Notes · The Scorecard

What the price assumed,
and what happened.

Every note sets down, on the day it is published, what the market price assumed and the tests that will judge it. When the checkpoint arrives, the result goes here, right or wrong.

Most research is never graded. We would rather be checked. Each note lists its tests before the facts are in; when the company reports, we score them as written, say what the price then offers on each case, and link the result from the note itself.

NotePublishedWhat the price assumedCheckpointResult
No. 1, The Chocolate Truce
Mondelez International
3 October 2026, at $58.19A full margin recovery: 16.2% by Year 4 and held, with 4% growth for a decade, for about 8.5% a year. Five tests on whether the cocoa relief is kept.February 2027, after fourth-quarter resultsOpen

Notes are research, not recommendations. A note passes or fails on its own stated tests, not on what the shares did.