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The reading list

Where the Library comes from.

Every paper below was resolved against the Crossref record before it was listed. Books are the assigned texts of the courses the Library draws on. Nothing here is reproduced; the DOI links go to the publishers. Where a free copy exists in a repository or on an open-access journal site, the entry links to it as well: 24 of the 122 papers, each link checked on 2026-09-16.

Papers

Bayes (1763). An Essay towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London(53), 370-418. doi
Galton (1886). Regression Towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature. The Journal of the Anthropological Institute of Great Britain and Ireland 15, 246. doi · Read a free copy
Jensen (1906). Sur les fonctions convexes et les inégalités entre les valeurs moyennes. Acta Mathematica 30(0), 175-193. doi · Read a free copy
Galton (1907). Vox Populi. Nature 75(1949), 450-451. doi · Read a free copy
Wald (1945). Sequential Tests of Statistical Hypotheses. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 16(2), 117-186. doi · Read a free copy
Black (1948). On the Rationale of Group Decision-making. Journal of Political Economy 56(1), 23-34. doi
Metropolis, Ulam (1949). The Monte Carlo Method. Journal of the American Statistical Association 44(247), 335-341. doi
Arrow (1950). A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare. Journal of Political Economy 58(4), 328-346. doi
Brier (1950). Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability. Monthly Weather Review 78(1), 1-3. doi
Nash (1950). The Bargaining Problem. Econometrica 18(2), 155. doi
Nash (1951). Non-Cooperative Games. The Annals of Mathematics 54(2), 286. doi
Markowitz (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance 7(1), 77-91. doi
Bellman (1954). The theory of dynamic programming. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society 60(6), 503-515. doi · Read a free copy
Downs (1957). An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy. Journal of Political Economy 65(2), 135-150. doi
Kaplan, Meier (1958). Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 53(282), 457-481. doi
Coase (1960). The Problem of Social Cost. The Journal of Law and Economics 3, 1-44. doi
Kantorovich (1960). Mathematical Methods of Organizing and Planning Production. Management Science 6(4), 366-422. doi
Thistlethwaite, Campbell (1960). Regression-discontinuity analysis: An alternative to the ex post facto experiment. Journal of Educational Psychology 51(6), 309-317. doi
Ellsberg (1961). Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 75(4), 643. doi
Vickrey (1961). Counterspeculation, Auctions, and Competitive Sealed Tenders. The Journal of Finance 16(1), 8-37. doi
Gale, Shapley (1962). College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage. The American Mathematical Monthly 69(1), 9-15. doi
Mandelbrot (1963). The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices. The Journal of Business 36(4), 394. doi
Pratt (1964). Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large. Econometrica 32(1/2), 122. doi
Howard (1966). Information Value Theory. IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics 2(1), 22-26. doi
Bass (1969). A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables. Management Science 15(5), 215-227. doi
Akerlof (1970). The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3), 488. doi
Capen, Clapp, Campbell (1971). Competitive Bidding in High-Risk Situations. Journal of Petroleum Technology 23(06), 641-653. doi
Lorrain, White (1971). Structural equivalence of individuals in social networks. The Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1(1), 49-80. doi
Cox (1972). Regression Models and Life-Tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology 34(2), 187-202. doi
Gibbard (1973). Manipulation of Voting Schemes: A General Result. Econometrica 41(4), 587. doi
Granovetter (1973). The Strength of Weak Ties. American Journal of Sociology 78(6), 1360-1380. doi
Kahneman, Tversky (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review 80(4), 237-251. doi
Spence (1973). Job Market Signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 87(3), 355. doi
Rubin (1974). Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies. Journal of Educational Psychology 66(5), 688-701. doi · Read a free copy
Tversky, Kahneman (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185(4157), 1124-1131. doi
Adams, Yellen (1976). Commodity Bundling and the Burden of Monopoly. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 90(3), 475. doi
Rothschild, Stiglitz (1976). Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 90(4), 629. doi
Dempster, Laird, Rubin (1977). Maximum Likelihood from Incomplete Data Via the <i>EM</i> Algorithm. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology 39(1), 1-22. doi
Freeman (1978). Centrality in social networks conceptual clarification. Social Networks 1(3), 215-239. doi
Green, Srinivasan (1978). Conjoint Analysis in Consumer Research: Issues and Outlook. Journal of Consumer Research 5(2), 103-123. doi
Mussa, Rosen (1978). Monopoly and product quality. Journal of Economic Theory 18(2), 301-317. doi
Romer, Rosenthal (1978). Political resource allocation, controlled agendas, and the status quo. Public Choice 33(4), 27-43. doi
Heckman (1979). Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error. Econometrica 47(1), 153. doi
Holmstrom (1979). Moral Hazard and Observability. The Bell Journal of Economics 10(1), 74. doi
Kahneman, Tversky (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica 47(2), 263. doi
Dixit (1980). The Role of Investment in Entry-Deterrence. The Economic Journal 90(357), 95. doi · Read a free copy
Myerson (1981). Optimal Auction Design. Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1), 58-73. doi
Crawford, Sobel (1982). Strategic Information Transmission. Econometrica 50(6), 1431. doi
Kreps, Wilson (1982). Reputation and imperfect information. Journal of Economic Theory 27(2), 253-279. doi
Milgrom, Roberts (1982). Predation, reputation, and entry deterrence. Journal of Economic Theory 27(2), 280-312. doi
Milgrom, Weber (1982). A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding. Econometrica 50(5), 1089. doi
Rubinstein (1982). Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model. Econometrica 50(1), 97. doi
Myerson, Satterthwaite (1983). Efficient mechanisms for bilateral trading. Journal of Economic Theory 29(2), 265-281. doi
Green, Porter (1984). Noncooperative Collusion under Imperfect Price Information. Econometrica 52(1), 87. doi
Arkes, Blumer (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 35(1), 124-140. doi
Ashenfelter, Card (1985). Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs. The Review of Economics and Statistics 67(4), 648. doi · Read a free copy
Bulow, Geanakoplos, Klemperer (1985). Multimarket Oligopoly: Strategic Substitutes and Complements. Journal of Political Economy 93(3), 488-511. doi
Fudenberg, Maskin (1986). The Folk Theorem in Repeated Games with Discounting or with Incomplete Information. Econometrica 54(3), 533. doi
McDonald, Siegel (1986). The Value of Waiting to Invest. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 101(4), 707. doi · Read a free copy
Romney, Weller, Batchelder (1986). Culture as Consensus: A Theory of Culture and Informant Accuracy. American Anthropologist 88(2), 313-338. doi
Bonacich (1987). Power and Centrality: A Family of Measures. American Journal of Sociology 92(5), 1170-1182. doi · Read a free copy
Howard (1988). Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise. Management Science 34(6), 679-695. doi
Thaler (1988). Anomalies: The Winner's Curse. Journal of Economic Perspectives 2(1), 191-202. doi · Read a free copy
Gilboa, Schmeidler (1989). Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior. Journal of Mathematical Economics 18(2), 141-153. doi
Kahneman, Knetsch, Thaler (1991). Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives 5(1), 193-206. doi
Banerjee (1992). A Simple Model of Herd Behavior. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(3), 797-817. doi
Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer, Welch (1992). A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades. Journal of Political Economy 100(5), 992-1026. doi · Read a free copy
Cohen (1992). A power primer. Psychological Bulletin 112(1), 155-159. doi
Carlsson, van Damme (1993). Global Games and Equilibrium Selection. Econometrica 61(5), 989. doi
Kahneman, Lovallo (1993). Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking. Management Science 39(1), 17-31. doi
Fearon (1994). Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review 88(3), 577-592. doi
Fearon (1995). Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization 49(3), 379-414. doi
Angrist, Imbens, Rubin (1996). Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables. Journal of the American Statistical Association 91(434), 444-455. doi
Austen-Smith, Banks (1996). Information Aggregation, Rationality, and the Condorcet Jury Theorem. American Political Science Review 90(1), 34-45. doi
Gabaix (1999). Zipf's Law for Cities: An Explanation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(3), 739-767. doi
Roth, Peranson (1999). The Redesign of the Matching Market for American Physicians: Some Engineering Aspects of Economic Design. American Economic Review 89(4), 748-780. doi · Read a free copy
Abreu, Gul (2000). Bargaining and Reputation. Econometrica 68(1), 85-117. doi
Anderson, van Wincoop (2003). Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review 93(1), 170-192. doi
Baliga, Sjostrom (2004). Arms Races and Negotiations. Review of Economic Studies 71(2), 351-369. doi
Bertrand, Duflo, Mullainathan (2004). How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(1), 249-275. doi · Read a free copy
Klibanoff, Marinacci, Mukerji (2005). A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity. Econometrica 73(6), 1849-1892. doi
Flyvbjerg (2006). From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right. Project Management Journal 37(3), 5-15. doi · Read a free copy
Groves (2006). Nonresponse Rates and Nonresponse Bias in Household Surveys. Public Opinion Quarterly 70(5), 646-675. doi
Edelman, Ostrovsky, Schwarz (2007). Internet Advertising and the Generalized Second-Price Auction: Selling Billions of Dollars Worth of Keywords. American Economic Review 97(1), 242-259. doi
Al-Najjar, Baliga, Besanko (2008). Market forces meet behavioral biases: cost misallocation and irrational pricing. The RAND Journal of Economics 39(1), 214-237. doi
Imbens, Lemieux (2008). Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice. Journal of Econometrics 142(2), 615-635. doi
Clauset, Shalizi, Newman (2009). Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data. SIAM Review 51(4), 661-703. doi · Read a free copy
Kohavi, Longbotham, Sommerfield (2009). Controlled experiments on the web: survey and practical guide. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery 18(1), 140-181. doi · Read a free copy
Train (2009). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. Cambridge University Press (book). doi
Athey, Imbens (2016). Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113(27), 7353-7360. doi · Read a free copy
Kelly (1956). A New Interpretation of Information Rate. Bell System Technical Journal 35(4), 917-926. doi
Thorp (1969). Optimal Gambling Systems for Favorable Games. Revue de l'Institut International de Statistique / Review of the International Statistical Institute 37(3), 273. doi
Merton (1969). Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case. The Review of Economics and Statistics 51(3), 247. doi
Leontief (1936). Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic Systems of the United States. The Review of Economics and Statistics 18(3), 105. doi
Little (1961). A Proof for the Queuing Formula: L = lambda W. Operations Research 9(3), 383-387. doi
Lorenz (1963). Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20(2), 130-141. doi · Read a free copy
Kermack, McKendrick (1927). A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character 115(772), 700-721. doi · Read a free copy
Ezekiel (1938). The Cobweb Theorem. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 52(2), 255. doi
Hotelling (1933). Analysis of a complex of statistical variables into principal components. Journal of Educational Psychology 24(6), 417-441. doi
Uhlenbeck, Ornstein (1930). On the Theory of the Brownian Motion. Physical Review 36(5), 823-841. doi
Black, Scholes (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. Journal of Political Economy 81(3), 637-654. doi
Taylor, Jonker (1978). Evolutionary stable strategies and game dynamics. Mathematical Biosciences 40(1-2), 145-156. doi
Maynard Smith, Price (1973). The Logic of Animal Conflict. Nature 246(5427), 15-18. doi
Schelling (1971). Dynamic models of segregation. The Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1(2), 143-186. doi
Granovetter (1978). Threshold Models of Collective Behavior. American Journal of Sociology 83(6), 1420-1443. doi · Read a free copy
Volterra (1926). Fluctuations in the Abundance of a Species considered Mathematically1. Nature 118(2972), 558-560. doi · Read a free copy
Hardin (1968). The Tragedy of the Commons. Science 162(3859), 1243-1248. doi
Samuelson (1954). The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure. The Review of Economics and Statistics 36(4), 387. doi
Sterman (1989). Modeling Managerial Behavior: Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment. Management Science 35(3), 321-339. doi
Nickell (1981). Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects. Econometrica 49(6), 1417. doi
Granger, Newbold (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics 2(2), 111-120. doi
Hotelling (1929). Stability in Competition. The Economic Journal 39(153), 41. doi
Arthur (1989). Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events. The Economic Journal 99(394), 116. doi
Fisher, Tippett (1928). Limiting forms of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample. Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 24(2), 180-190. doi
Hill (1995). A Statistical Derivation of the Significant-Digit Law. Statistical Science 10(4). doi · Read a free copy
Spetzler, Stael von Holstein (1975). Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis. Management Science 22(3), 340-358. doi
Breiman (2001). Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures. Statistical Science 16(3). doi
Tversky, Kahneman (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin 76(2), 105-110. doi
Embrechts, Klüppelberg, Mikosch (1997). Modelling Extremal Events. Springer (book). doi
Lee, Padmanabhan, Whang (1997). Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect. Management Science 43(4), 546-558. doi
Bak, Tang, Wiesenfeld (1987). Self-organized criticality: an explanation of the 1/f noise. Physical Review Letters 59(4), 381-384. doi
Diamond, Dybvig (1983). Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity. Journal of Political Economy 91(3), 401-419. doi · Read a free copy

Books

Frank, Robert H. Microeconomics and Behavior. McGraw-Hill.
MMSS 211-1 Assigned text, Turbo Micro, Fall 2026.
Lay, Lay and McDonald. Linear Algebra and Its Applications, 6th ed. Pearson.
MATH 285 Assigned text, Accelerated Mathematics for MMSS.
Rice, John A. Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis, 3rd ed. Cengage.
MATH 385 Assigned text, Probability and Statistics for MMSS.
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Cengage.
MATH 386-1 Assigned text, Econometrics for MMSS.
Gibbons, Robert (1992). Game Theory for Applied Economists. Princeton University Press.
MMSS 211-2 Assigned text, Introduction to Game Theory.
Tadelis, Steven (2013). Game Theory: An Introduction. Princeton University Press.
MMSS 311-1 Assigned text, Advanced Game Theory.
Kreps, David M. (1988). Notes on the Theory of Choice. Westview Press.
MECS 550-1 The doctoral decision theory text at Kellogg MEDS.
Savage, Leonard J. (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley; Dover reprint 1972.
MECS 550-1 Subjective probability and expected utility from axioms.
Gilboa, Itzhak (2009). Theory of Decision under Uncertainty. Cambridge University Press.
MECS 550-1 Modern treatment including ambiguity.
Myerson, Roger B. (1991). Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict. Harvard University Press.
MECS 540-2 Written at MEDS; assigned in Political Economy II.
Schelling, Thomas C. (1960). The Strategy of Conflict. Harvard University Press.
MECS 540-2 Commitment, focal points, credible threats.
Muthoo, Abhinay (1999). Bargaining Theory with Applications. Cambridge University Press.
MECS 540-2 Assigned background reading.
Salanie, Bernard (2005). The Economics of Contracts: A Primer, 2nd ed. MIT Press.
MECS 465 Lectured from in Contract Theory and Mechanism Design.
Bertsimas, Dimitris and Freund, Robert M. (2004). Data, Models, and Decisions: The Fundamentals of Management Science. Dynamic Ideas.
DECS-433 Decision trees, value of information, simulation cases.
Klibanoff, Sandroni, Moselle and Saraniti. Managerial Statistics: A Case-Based Approach. Cengage.
DECS-430/431 The Kellogg MBA statistics text, written in MEDS.
Besanko, Dranove, Shanley and Schaefer. Economics of Strategy, 7th ed. Wiley.
MECN-441 The Kellogg competitive strategy text.
Besanko, David and Braeutigam, Ronald. Microeconomics, 5th ed. Wiley.
MECN-430 Optional text, Microeconomic Analysis.
Dixit, Avinash K. and Pindyck, Robert S. (1994). Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press.
DECS-433 Real options and the value of waiting.
Raiffa, Howard (1968). Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices under Uncertainty. Addison-Wesley.
MECN-451 The decision tree and value of information tradition.
Kahneman, Daniel (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
MECNX-435 Biases the executive dilemmas course teaches to anticipate.
Wasserman, Stanley and Faust, Katherine (1994). Social Network Analysis: Methods and Applications. Cambridge University Press.
MMSS (1995 network curriculum) Centrality, structural equivalence, cohesive groups.
Mas-Colell, Whinston and Green (1995). Microeconomic Theory. Oxford University Press.
ECON 410 / MECS core The doctoral microeconomics reference.
Lanchester, F. W. (1916). Aircraft in Warfare: The Dawn of the Fourth Arm. Constable.
MMSS 1995 (difference equations) The square law of concentrated force, later applied to market share battles.
Lotka, Alfred J. (1925). Elements of Physical Biology. Williams and Wilkins.
MMSS 1995 (difference equations) Predator and prey as coupled equations.
Olson, Mancur (1965). The Logic of Collective Action. Harvard University Press.
MMSS 300 Why groups with a shared interest fail to act on it.
Forrester, Jay W. (1958). Industrial Dynamics: A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers. Harvard Business Review, 36(4), 37-66.
MECN-451 The founding article of system dynamics; feedback and delay in industrial supply chains.
Howard, Ronald A. and Abbas, Ali E. (2016). Foundations of Decision Analysis. Pearson.
MS&E 252 (Stanford) The Stanford decision analysis text: framing, alternatives, clairvoyance, probability encoding.
Sterman, John D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill.
MECN-451 The standard text on feedback, stocks, flows, and delay in business systems.